Market Analysis Review

Daily Market Report: Expert Technical & Fundamental Insights – 28.02.2025

| 28 February, 2025 at 12:00 GMT

EURUSD

Mixed numbers from EZ prevailed with higher economic sentiment in February and weaker service sentiments as well. EURUSD traded slightly lower today at $1.0390 after big loss on Thursday as the US President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on EU imports to America. While EU leaders are likely to retaliate, instability will have negative impact on sentiments. EURUSD is still down by -0.67% on weekly basis. 

1H RSI was already oversold. Price action started recovering with bullish trend index , targeting $1.0420. $1.0350 is support. Monthly forecast remained mostly bearish. 

USDJPY

USDJPY was little changed this morning, trading at 149.66. Yen gained 3.6% in February, best performance among G10 currencies. Yen remained highly correlated to the Japanese economic fundamentals and BoJ forward guidance. Retal trade in Japan increased in January , higher than December, and industrial production grew by 2.6% YoY, contracted by -1.1% MoM. Yen is likely to benefit from global chaos due to Trump’s tariffs. 

While the monthly forecasts remained bullish on USD, 1 week forecast was bearish. Price action slowly moved higher , targeting 150.15 with cautious approach.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded slightly weaker today at $1.2582, one-week low. Markets are still expecting the first rate cut by next June 2025, however UK inflation remained elevated, higher than BoE’s target of 2%. All eyes will remain on Trump’s proposed tariffs on EU imports, even if UK remained one of the closest allies to America, politically & economically. 

Price action kept falling, not far from an oversold level. 1H trend index is bullish now, but not really matching the price action. 1 week forecast remained bearish by 40%, 20% bullish.

Gold

This  week is likely to be the first weekly loss in gold after eight consecutive weeks of positive closing, gold dropped today to $2864 per ounce, three-week low, losing more than -2% in a week, but remained up by 3.7% in a month. According to WGC, over 600 tons of gold have been moved to New York vaults amid looming tariffs. Strong GDP growth & higher than expected durable goods from the US supported USD. Keep an eye on the US PCE numbers later today, it is Fed’s favorite indicator to measure the inflation. 

Price action kept falling and traders’ behavior sowed that the selling may continue to $2840         ( major support). Sentiments became mixed with 25% bullish & 25% bearish.

Silver

Silver was little changed today, trading at $31.22 per ounce, on-month low. US silver coin purchases dropped -27% YoY in January , the lowest since 2018. Markets ignored the strong durable goods from the US and focused more on Trump’s tariffs , its consequences & China’s retaliation which is highly expected. China faces new 10% tariffs on March 4 according to Trump. Trump already imposed tariffs on steel & aluminum imports by 25%. 

Hourly trend index remained bearish with shrinking  volatility. $30.80 is strong support.

Oil – WTI

Crude oil prices fell today, WTI $70PB, Brent $73.23PB after it rose 2% on Thursday. President Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela , which means tightening oil supply. Chevron exports about 240000 barrels a day from Venezuela. At the same time, Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Canadian energy imports. While Trump aimed for lower oil prices, the global uncertainty may not help him if global oil supply faces disruptions.  

Most of the traders remained bearish. 1H trend index was bearish as well . 1H RSI is almost overbought, but price action showed no strong bet to buy nor to sell. $69.20 is support, $71.20 is resistance.

DAX

German DAX index futures fell sharply today to 22250, after it lost by another -1% on Thursday as President Trump affirmed 20% tariffs on Canada & Mexico , effective March 4. He announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on EU cars , that’s going to be the worst scenario for German auto makers. Yesterday, BMW lost -3.8%, Mercedes -2.3%, Airbus -1.4%, Daimler -2% & Porsche -3.6%. Busy day ahead from Germany with the release of retail sales & inflation numbers for the month of February. EZ economies face huge challenges now due to Trump’s tariffs & ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Price action is still falling & targeting 22140 . 1H trend index remained totally bearish.

Nasdaq

US stock futures were slightly higher after big losses on Thursday, Dow Jones -0.45% , SPX -1.59% the lowest levels in six weeks, and Nasdaq dropped by 2.7% to the lowest level in four months. What happened yesterday was a mix of stronger US data that may keep the rates higher for longer, and Trump’s confirmed tariffs on Canada & Mexico, with another 10% tariffs  on China as well, that’s why bearish mood persisted. PCE , personal spending & income will be due today. PCE remained the primary gauge of inflation. 

While 1H RSI was totally oversold, price action has not shown bullish bets. 21000 will be the next target. Short-lived gains to 20800 may  happen, but traders’ remained mostly bearish as price action showed. Volatility remained high.

BTCUSD

Bitcoin fell today by another -6% to $79700, the lowest since last November, losing 25% from all-time high, followed by -9% loss in Eth, -9% in Cardano & -9% as well in XRP. Such a huge loss was due to the changing markets’ sentiments because of Trump’ tariffs & global uncertainty that may happen later. Crypto market cap fell to $2.64 trillion, losing almost $400 billion in just three days. $754 million in BTC – ETF & $94 million  in Eth were outflows from cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on February 26, more than $1.5 billion outflow from BTC-ETF in just two days. 

Price action reflects the traders’ mood that remained mostly bearish. Price action kept falling, supporting further loss to $78K then $76700K. No important resistance before $84K.